A set of 14 analyst forecasts compiled by Bloomberg predicts that Apple’s quarterly profits – due to be reported tomorrow – will have fallen for the first time since 2003.

Apple’s shares recently fell below $400. Despite widespread expectations that the company is working on two new product categories – an HD TV and a smartwatch – its famous refusal to confirm or deny such rumors is leaving investors nervous. Apple is expected to raise its dividend in an attempt to appease shareholders, with Bloomberg predicting a quarterly dividend of around $3.10 a share.

Those wondering whether now is the right time to buy AAPL face what Alex Gauna of JMP Securities described as the ‘falling knife’ dilemma: